UCS Market Framework — July 29th,2025

$DG $HON $UBER

Market Note:

There’s certainly money moving between sectors right now.
So many pullbacks, very few clean consolidations.
Earnings season is the great reallocator. Institutions shift, sectors rotate, and traders… well, they try to catch the correction when correlations snap.

That’s what this game is.
Spot the misalignments, and Structure trades with clarity. Let’s go.

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TICKER 1 – DG 0.00%↑ (Dollar General)

Setup: UCS#1 extending into UCS#2
Narrative:
This is technical value land (not long term investing type value). $DG has been punished, but it’s now pressing into support around $102.50 and $97.00, and the stretch is clear. RSI, volume, and structure all say "short term oversold."

Entry Trigger:

Lower timeframe bottoming pattern — a double-bottom or reclaim of minor resistance would do.

My Trade Plan:

• Structure: Binary-style long call debit spread

• DTE: ~30 Days

• Risk/Reward: 1:1, defined

• Thesis: Don’t need a breakout. Just a snapback from over-extension.

But here’s the nuance — there was a UCS#4 setup just a week ago.
So, I’m honestly eyeing $97 more than $102.50 for the snap. Why now? Because this is high risk, high reward.

Here’s how I play it:

Set the debit spread around $102.50. If price drops to $97 or lower as the UCS 4 plays out, close the short leg for near-zero. That leaves me with a long call, 15+ days of time, and a low-cost chance at a move back to $104.
If it works — beautiful. If not — I sized for failure.

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TICKER 2 – HON 0.00%↑ (Honeywell)

Setup: UCS#2 post-earnings
Earnings Recap:

• Beat EPS: $2.41 vs $2.38 expected

• Revenue miss: $9.17B vs $9.19B

• Raised full-year EPS guidance slightly

• Management cautious on near-term industrial demand but bullish on automation and aerospace growth

• Big picture: Stable margins, strong cash flow, and a cleaner backlog

Entry Trigger:
Already flashing reversal signals. This is a textbook UCS#2 snapback candidate — post-earnings exhaustion into prior demand.

My Trade Plan:

• Structure: Binary-style long call debit spread

• DTE: 30–45 Days

• Risk/Reward: 1:1

• Thesis: Buy fear, fade over-reaction. Let the structure handle the rest.

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TICKER 3 – UBER 0.00%↑

Setup: UCS#1 → Consolidation → Pre-earnings compression
Narrative:
Price is trapped in a coil just before earnings. This is price volatility bottled, IV increasing. Market’s waiting — either for the breakout or a flush.

Entry Trigger:
None yet. This is all about executing.

My Trade Plan:

• Structure: Back Ratio Call Spread

• Why? IV is high, so we sell some juice, buy a flyer

• Expiration: Select expiry where IV isn’t at the absolute peak (i.e. post-earnings)

• Thesis: Expecting a moderate move up, not a moonshot. If it doesn’t move, risk is limited.

This is the chess move before the earnings drama begins.

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Final Thought

The UCS framework isn’t about prediction — it’s about positioning for risk and learning to maximize on working trade.
When price stretches, we don’t panic.
When volatility rises, we don’t chase.
We plan, structure, and let the market do its thing.

It’s not about being early.
It’s about being right-sized and right-timed.

Disclaimer:

• I did not acquire a position at the time of posting. See you in the pit.

• I am NOT a licensed financial advisor, investment professional, or registered broker-dealer. The strategies, indicators, and trade ideas shared here are for educational and informational purposes only. They reflect my personal opinions, research, and trading approach.

• Trading options and financial markets involves risk. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Use of this information is at your own risk.