UCS Market Framework — June 11, 2025

Active trades - $BSX, $PEP, $ETSY

I am still in on the trades previously discussed - Closing trades will be shared in the note along with % win/loss.

Ticker: NKE 0.00%↑ (Nike Inc.)

Market Posture: Compression Phase → Setup Phase

NKE 0.00%↑ has spent the past few weeks consolidating in a tight range — a classic prelude to a volatility event. With earnings approaching, I’m eyeing a

UCS#4: Squeeze with Optimal Entry.

This setup becomes especially potent when price action remains muted, with RSG priming for breakout, hints at a potential breakout (it can fake-out aswell.) Volatility expansion post-earnings could be the trigger.

That means the SET phase — before the crowd catches on — is where premium traders can quietly load positions before IV spikes inflate options pricing.

We're currently in that sweet spot.

Strategy Insight

I'm leaning into defensive, range-based structures here due to:

• Lack of directional clarity

• Earnings catalyst still a few weeks away

Primary Plan: Long Iron Condor

• Targeting 40–50 DTE - primarily to adjust.

• Positioned around current range extremes

• Ideal for collecting theta while waiting for confirmation

• Defined risk; minimal stress

Alternative Setup: Back Ratio Spread

If IV skew favors it (i.e., short leg IV > long leg IV), a back ratio becomes cost-efficient and convex. I’ll consider this only if the options chain provides a favorable setup with risk-reward asymmetry in my favor.

Mental Capital Matters

Nike shares some personality traits with PEP — both can fake out hard before any real follow-through. I’ve learned to respect chop, especially in pre-earnings cycles. To preserve mental bandwidth, I prefer trades where I don’t have to guess direction.

A bi-directional trade like a long iron condor keeps me neutral and objective, letting price and IV expansion work in my favor either way.

Disclaimer:
I am NOT a licensed financial advisor, investment professional, or registered broker-dealer. The strategies, indicators, and trade ideas shared here are for educational and informational purposes only. They reflect my personal opinions, research, and trading approach.

Trading options and financial markets involves risk. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Use of this information is at your own risk.